March Madness is an exhilarating time for basketball fans, but for bettors and handicappers, it’s a matter of separating emotion from strategy. Picking March Madness upsets can feel like roulette to some people, but seasoned sportsbooks know how to find value hidden in seemingly bizarre upsets the average fan can’t even imagine. Whether you’re putting your money on specific teams or just reveling in the chaos of upsets, knowing the ins and outs of breaking down the tournament can help you make informed decisions.
How to Handicapping March Madness Upsets
Choosing which teams to upset in the 2025 NCAA tournament isn’t a matter of luck. It’s about analyzing matchups, creating team dynamics, and following the money. Though there’s no failsafe formula, considering these key steps can lead to discovering teams built to surprise a higher-seed opponent.
Team Matchups and Styles of Play Each team has its own style of play, and how those styles match up against each other is an essential factor. Some teams are built for fast-paced, run ’n’ gun games, while others are built for knockdown, drag-out defensive tussles. When lower-seeded teams can exploit weaknesses in their higher-seeded opponents’ style of play, upsets are more likely.
Pay Attention to Power Ratings A professional handicapper will pay attention to power ratings, where teams are ranked on their overall strength. An objective look at how teams compare in terms of scoring, defense, and rebounding is a valuable tool for predicting outcomes. Watch out for teams with excellent power ratings that get overlooked because of seeding.
Line Movement and Betting Public One of the key indicators for handicappers is tracking line movement. If the point spread shifts dramatically, it’s usually because wise guys are betting on one side. On the other hand, the rush of public money pouring in on a favorite can sometimes be a tell that bettors have found favorable odds on that underdog should the spread appear overly lopsided.
Best Signs That Upsets Are Possible
There’s no sure way to predict March Madness upsets, but here are a few signs that an underdog might be poised to pull off a surprising victory:
Players and Senior Leadership: Teams that boast a higher number of veteran players/leaders who have experience playing within the tournament are usually more poised in high-stakes moments.
Strong Defense: A good defense can stymie the rhythm of a more talented, offensively oriented team. Target teams that are good at guarding the perimeter or creating turnovers.
Momentum: Teams that ride into the tournament on a hot streak, winning several games in a row, might have the confidence and chemistry needed to pull an upset on a higher-seeded opponent.
Coach Factor: Having a veteran coach used to winning these games can be the difference in tightly contested games. Coaching changes and game plans usually make a difference in upsets.
Teams to Watch as Potential Underdogs
Mid-Major Schools: It might not get the national spotlight, but it can be deadly during March Madness. They often play like they have a chip on their shoulder, driven to show their stuff against more recognizable teams.
Versatile Players: The beauty of March Madness is that anything is possible, especially if a team has one standout player who can take over a game. Seek Out Teams With Superstars Who Come Up Big In The Clutch
Defensive-Minded Teams: This is a tournament whose games tend, for the most part, to be more about grit than glamor. A team with a staunch defensive approach could outlast a higher-seeded opponent in a low-scoring, grind-it-out contest.
A Quick Guide to Betting on March Madness.
March Madness is famed for upsets, but successful betting takes more than praying for pandemonium. However, you can outperform the casual bettor by studying matchups, following betting trends, and utilizing specific key predictors of possible upsets. Whether a bit of school stepping up to the plate or a longtime power getting sent home early, March Madness upsets are a signature of the tournament and if you play your cards right, you can use them to your advantage.
March Madness upsets are among the most exhilarating aspects of the NCAA tournament, and with careful handicapping, you can get an early edge. Happy betting!